Just eight weeks prior when the Villa attacker was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while his coach berated him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. Back then, as the club failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether his performances were a symptom or the source for the side's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, however, the manager's outburst was much more joyous. As the England international swept in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim the lead for Villa, Emery ripped off his jacket, threw his arms wide and bellowed. Villa were on their way to ten wins in a row and having failed to win their opening six games, are somehow only three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Title Contenders?
This is a rather hard question to address. The historical record, the traditional standing of this institution, argues against it. Moreover, they've rarely been wholly dominant during this run, even as the positive results have stacked up.
According to statistical analysis, twice all season have Villa registered an expected goals figure notably superior than their opponents. For a club that have put together 10 in a row, they appear curiously susceptible – however right now the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The current approach seems to be to trade blows with rivals and then rely on Rogers to save the day with two precise efforts. This occurred away to Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and it happened against Manchester United.
The initial strike stemmed from a superb shot, bent just inside the upright from a wide position. For his second acted as a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opposition had more shots and more efforts on goal. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge they must confront in the near future. Their key man, in all likelihood, will not continue to thrashing the ball into the net's top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Could it be an alternative path where, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs might still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward could start scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the player he showed in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually regain fitness, bolstering a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
However, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And certainly two months ago, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while looking like a crucial England player.
This winning streak is to be savoured exactly since it feels so unlikely. As Rogers stood in front of the Villa faithful at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These spells do not happen often and should be relished.
