Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
